Mohammed Chahim, member of the European Parliament, believes that the EU can play a leading role in the future. He casts himself as a “pragmatic idealist”, eager to find the most effective way to reach his goal. And Chahim has a clear goal in mind: the EU should be at the forefront of technological innovation while staunchly respecting human and social rights and fostering excellent environmental conditions. “Our turbines should be the gold standard. Not only should they be big and clean, but they should be just as durable and reusable, too. We should compete on innovation, not on costs alone.” He stresses how important it is that governments invest in these technologies: “We have to be proactive and set up appropriate investment programs and funds.”

Working in unity to ensure security of supply

Lucia van Geuns, Strategic Advisor Energy at The Hague Center for Strategic Studies, emphasizes the importance of close cooperation between government and industry. She is an expert on the geopolitical aspects of energy security and is in favor of energy independence in Europe.

“Strategic visions, underpinned by future scenarios, are essential for both companies and countries"

- Lucia van Geuns, HCSS

The underlying ambition of the Green Deal is to increase Europe’s energy self-sufficiency. And yet, Van Geuns warns, fossil fuels will retain their dominant presence in our energy system in the near future. The speed of the transition to renewable sources will be largely determined by local factors. “Will solar and wind account for the lion’s share of the world’s energy mix in 2050? And to what extent will the share of fossil fuels have shrunk?”

Van Geuns argues that strategic visions, underpinned by future scenarios, are essential for both companies and countries. She emphasizes that the multi-faceted challenges accompanying the energy transition can only be overcome by taking a holistic approach.

Ulco Vermeulen, former board member of Gasunie, a key player in the Dutch energy transition, welcomes the increasingly comprehensive spotlight put on the energy supply in the Netherlands. “The dialogue on energy sources and raw materials has become less superficial, and a more holistic approach is gradually emerging, focused on topics such as hydrogen and carbon storage.” Vermeulen predicts that the climate will take center stage: “Our energy infrastructure should serve the climate.”

Gasunie has set its sights on heat, green gas, hydrogen, and carbon capture and storage. Vermeulen believes that in the short term the latter holds the most promise. “Hydrogen is the future, but its impact will remain limited in the years to come, because it is yet to be made cost-efficient and scalable.” Vermeulen also forecasts that data technology will be embraced at ever greater scales: “I expect considerable advances in data-driven coordination between hydrogen and electricity, laying the foundation for a new domain in which data becomes a crucial part of the decision-making process.”

Increased demand for green electricity

Where hydrogen is likely to become a meaningful energy source for industry, wind power will undeniably continue to play a central role in our energy supply. Ruben Dijkstra, Director Benelux at Danish offshore wind pioneer Ørsted, believes that the pursuit of energy independence and climate preservation give ample reason to invest heavily in offshore wind. “Our goal is to get to 30 gigawatts of offshore wind capacity by 2030, up from the 22 gigawatts we currently have operational and in the pipeline.” Dijkstra confirms that models and data are indispensable in his industry. “Before you decide to invest, you need accurate insight into the potential yield of a wind farm. This is a science in and of itself. We also have an arsenal of sensors and data to track how components behave, to analyze outages and to schedule preventive maintenance.”

Wind energy supply is growing so rapidly that it will soon outstrip demand for green power, but Dijkstra believes that electric transport, heat pumps, and especially the greening of industry, provide opportunities to boost demand. To stimulate this development, the conversion of wind energy to other energy carriers like hydrogen is high on the priority list. For Dijkstra, the speed with which infrastructure adapts to changing needs will be an important factor in setting the pace of the energy transition in general.

A pragmatic approach

Stephan Segbers, director of operations at energy company Essent, emphasizes the crucial role of reliability and security of supply in his industry, and argues that sustainability fits that list perfectly. "Large energy companies have made the shift to sustainable business models, and the entire industry now understands that you need a sustainable business model for medium- and long-term success. How our B2C and B2B customers think about energy has been flipped on its head. A product that was once taken for granted has now captured everyone’s attention, which will only expedite the energy transition.”

''The energy world is rapidly digitizing, and any future-oriented energy company should be strongly data-driven''

- Stephan Segbers, Essent

If Segbers had his way, companies would devise robust future plans for the transition. “We have to be more adaptive and more flexible, we have to be quicker on our feet. The energy world is rapidly digitizing, and any future-oriented energy company should be strongly data-driven. A fundamental understanding of energy markets and systems will remain key but must be complemented by cutting-edge knowledge of IT and data, as well as a holistic view of how to combine products and solutions, and the interaction between the two.”

Transparent models

Martin Haigh, Energy Fundamentals Manager at Shell, is an expert on energy scenarios. He employs sophisticated models that factor in uncertainties and are aimed at sparking discussions and exploring diverse future perspectives.

''We aim to use models as tools to explain the thought processes.''

- Martin Haigh, Shell

One of Haigh's core challenges is to capture the transitioning of the energy system. “How do you model the energy system through a transition? That raises a debate about what lessons from the past we can rely on. In statistical terms: what relationships would persist, what parameters could you even rely on, and what is up for change?” Haigh has helped develop an extensible model that is capable of simulating various processes. In an era marked by the increasing availability of data, he stresses the importance of transparency. “There's a danger that modelling becomes a black box, with people blindly accepting – or rejecting – the outcomes without questioning the assumptions behind them. We aim to use models as tools to explain the thought processes."

Haigh is a firm believer in the key role that governments and companies have to play in the energy transition. “The market leaders of the future are the companies that take the initiative and demonstrate innovation, both in business models and technology. The major challenge, for organizations like Shell and the system at large, is scaling solutions quickly.”

Karin Griffioen, Global Industry Director Energy at ORTEC, discusses the use of solid analyses in the energy transition: “Models are an essential tool for testing our intuitions and assumptions, providing a calculated basis for decisionmaking.” She argues that while we build our new energy system, we should ensure that fossil fuels are used efficiently. “Mathematics can be a valuable tool to achieve this, for example by designing and operating an efficient fuel network.” Griffioen points out how mathematics can help people reckon with complexity and manage uncertainties, e.g. when expanding energy grids and storage facilities. She also stresses the importance of math for planning investments, given the long lifespan of the assets involved and the myriad forms of uncertainty that must be taken into account.

Different perspectives, one route

Clearly, the energy transition is a comprehensive issue that touches on a wide array of different parties, each of whom must protect their own interests. Nevertheless, there is common ground to be found in a shared goal: a sustainable future. And the support of sound data analysis and smart mathematical applications makes pursuing this shared goal easier.