Shell has been generating scenarios for over half a century, and Energy Fundamentals Manager Martin Haigh has played a significant part in that for the last eighteen years. “Scenarios came to fame during the OPEC oil crisis of 1973. The capability of modelling has moved on tremendously over time, with computing power and the availability of data. Nonetheless there’s been a continuous debate: to what extent can modelling play a role? There has always been a role for quantification. A company runs on numbers in a lot of ways. But there is a danger in putting too much emphasis on numbers in scenario work. It may cause you to lose sight of what is driving change in a system. There is a tension, but also a balance to strike.” Hence the distinctive, holistic Shell approach.

"This picture illustrates the challenges with creating an accurate view of the future", as Haigh explains.