TNO’s role is to look ahead, says Lastdrager. “We work on developments before they reach the general public. Our job is to ask which path our society should take, based on the missions set by the government, and which product or service will best help us get there. For example, which technological developments will help us reach the lofty goal of zero emissions as soon as possible? We try to link what is best for society on the one hand with solutions that are feasible for businesses on the other hand. We call this our “mission-driven innovation policy”. Our missions among others include the energy transition, healthcare, and safety. Within all these fields, TNO identifies and provides key enabling methods and technologies that can be applied by businesses and authorities.

Zero emissions, zero casualties, zero loss

TNO always works in close cooperation with businesses, Lastdrager stresses, either with individual companies or groups of them. “In the Netherlands, we have so-called top sectors that often represent entire ecosystems. The Netherlands is a premier example of the triple-helix approach, with authorities, knowledge institutions and businesses collaborating to speed up and improve innovation. The Ministry of Economic Affairs and Climate Policy funds these top sectors to make sure that the necessary technological developments actually take place. As a research institution, we receive funding from the Ministry of Economic Affairs and Climate Policy, which we then combine with the funds and resources of the top sectors to create technologies that businesses need. Since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, we have seen a new type of ecosystem emerge that is more programmatic in nature.” When asked to mention several of the objectives that TNO is currently pursuing, Lastdrager notes: “One of the biggest challenges we are working on at the moment is zero-emission mobility, which involves developing an entirely new generation of powertrains for cars and trucks, ships, trains and non-road machinery. The goal is to eliminate the emission of carbon dioxide or other harmful substances such as nitrogen. In addition to new combustion engines, which are becoming increasingly green and clean by harnessing the power of hydrogen, for instance, we also explore electrical powertrains and fuel cell technology. Moreover, we also apply technologies in the field of autonomous driving and study how these technologies can safely be incorporated into our traffic system. That’s where artificial intelligence (AI) comes into play, as it can use the vast amounts of data collected by cars to make sure that they can recognize traffic situations in time and respond correctly by braking, accelerating or changing direction. We are currently working with various companies to build the digital infrastructure needed for safe autonomous driving.”

“The Netherlands is a premier example of the triple-helix approach.”

Ethical considerations

In Noord-Brabant, we have created a testing area in which autonomous vehicles can be tested in real life situations, so that we can work with ground truths, Lastdrager explains. “In the future, you want cars to have all the information they need to drive safely, but this is not yet the case for the current generation of autonomous vehicles. All too often, today’s vehicles end up in situations that they do not recognize or do not respond to properly. After all, we can’t have vehicles failing to recognize roundabouts because they’re not on the map yet or braking hard for no reason because they think there’s an obstacle on the road. We are working with various different parties to turn the potential of autonomous cars, i.e. fewer accidents, into reality. It is our goal to develop technology that is not just safe and comfortable for the passenger, but also for the people around them.” Uber, for example, is also experimenting with autonomous driving, with the aim of deploying autonomous taxis on a massive scale. This would have enormous consequences, Lastdrager predicts: “If they manage to have their car approved, their business model will shift to round-the-clock driverless taxi rides at the lowest possible cost. If you allow this to happen unchecked, congestion in cities would skyrocket. This technology will make taxis cheap and comfortable, but because they will find fares themselves, their total distance travelled will also increase. Moreover, a ubiquitous supply of cheap taxis will also have health effects, simply because they will make cycling and walking less appealing options. We have partnered up with the Cities of Amsterdam and Rotterdam to explore the policy side of things. With regard to hard technology, we are looking at what services and solutions companies could offer to counter this problem.”

“Who is responsible if I cause a data breach because an organization failed to set up a watertight protocol?”

However, there are more challenges to overcome before autonomous cars can take to the streets. If an autonomous vehicle causes an accident, who is liable? These ethical questions will become more and more common, Lastdrager expects. “Who is responsible if I cause a data breach because an organization failed to set up a watertight protocol? And how do you go about keeping the mobility system secure and stop users from downloading and using malware? With regard to liability, we have identified a clear shift from individual to collective liability and from individuals to digital systems. TNO is also working on explainable AI, which allows you to see why certain decisions were made in retrospect. At the same time, we are also working on AI that can detect anomalies while a car is driving, so that you can intervene in time. These are only a few examples of the technologies we’re working on now and that we’ll need if we are to make major progress by 2030.”

Exploring patterns of choice

TNO is also using AI to better understand and predict how and why passengers make the choices they do. Lastdrager: “A particularly interesting question we’re exploring is whether our travel patterns have permanently changed since the onset of the COVID-19 crisis. More people are expected to work from home for one or two days a week, even after we’re all allowed to return to the office. On top of that, we do not know how quickly people will regain their confidence in public transport, as we’ve seen that more consumers than usual have decided to buy a car since the pandemic began. These are all trends that we track closely. One good reason to travel by public transport is that you don’t have to suffer through traffic jams, but what would happen if there were fewer traffic jams overall? Why do people choose a particular mode of transport in the first place, and more importantly: how will new forms of electric micro-mobility change our mobility patterns and preferences as a whole? People’s motives are shifting, and we study them so as to make better predictions about the future accessibility of cities and zero-loss transport and deliveries. The reasons for which people travel are changing, as are their destinations, and the rate at which people are adopting tools that eliminate the need for mobility is increasing rapidly, all of which effects the value of real estate, the value of different modes of transport, and the actual value and perceived value of the workplace.”

“People’s motives are shifting, and we study them so as to make better predictions about the future accessibility of cities and zero-loss transport and deliveries.”

Less fear

“The COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated the rate at which digital solutions are implemented and adopted”, Lastdrager explains. “What would have normally taken us ten years, now happened in less than a year. The change was everything but gradual: it was instant and disruptive and will effect how we plan our cities and where people live and work. Digitization is unstoppable, so I would recommend all executives to take stock of how their organization is doing in this regard. Most companies have adopted Teams, Zoom and Skype by now, but how digital are you really, and how digital would you like to be? I would also look carefully at my real estate portfolio, as accelerated digitization will undoubtedly have an effect on certain types of real estate. And then there’s the question of how you can get your employees to stay healthy and get plenty of exercise.”

Although many organizations have seen demand for their products or services drop due to the crisis, TNO is still a staunch advocate for innovation. “Boards looking to introduce innovations and new ways of working have the wind in their sails, because people have become a lot less fearful of digital solutions. This means that new technologies are implemented and adopted a lot quicker. Autonomous driving won’t become a reality any day soon, but its development is ramping up and new innovations can have a major impact on road safety, provided that they are designed and implemented properly. As society’s adaptivity increases, organizations will have to speed up their innovation efforts. We’ve just had ten years of digitization in one fell swoop, but, says Lastdrager, it is also important that we act quickly to update our social rules accordingly. “When the world returns to normal, the rate of digitization will slow down again, because the rate at which technologies are accepted by society usually goes hand in hand with agreements about how we deal with these technologies. At the moment, they are out of step.”

“We jumped ten years into the future in one fell swoop. The change was everything but gradual: it was instant and disruptive.”

Cargo-driven

Still, Lastdrager is optimistic about the economic future of our country. “The Netherlands is very good at supplying high-quality components, and because these components are becoming increasingly important to companies all over the world, I predict we could become a major global player in this respect. We are quite progressive when it comes to digitization, I’m certainly not gloomy about the future. The trick is to speed up the rate at which other core industries, such as the logistics sector, are digitizing. In the past, the supply chain and logistics were two separate worlds. Warehouse digitization used to fall squarely in the supply chain’s remit, with the trucks that came to pick up the goods belonging to a completely different world. Now, though, the supply chain and transportation industry are intertwining due to the increased pressure on the latter.

Sharing data

Logistics companies will be able to grow by sharing data and adjusting to self-organizing logistics, Lastdrager predicts. “They will start operating as a service provider, combining supply and demand. It has already been suggested that logistics will become a utility of sorts, with a data sharing protocol just like the Internet. If you have access to information about available capacity, costs, location and duration, shipments can start signing themselves up for delivery via data platforms.” New economic opportunities are expected to emerge soon in this field, “And the Netherlands is ahead of the curve, joined by several other European countries. Rotterdam is the gateway to Europe. If cargo becomes a major driver of logistics, the gateway will also have to be ready to switch to a new way of working.”

“Digitization is unstoppable, so I would recommend all executives to take stock of how their organization is doing in this regard.”

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About the interviewee

Ellen Lastdrager is Managing Director Traffic & Transport at TNO since January 2018. The division Traffic & Transport of TNO focuses on (societal) challenges in the logistics sector, such as safety, sustainability, and efficiency on the road. Next to that, it focuses on the integral approach of urban challenges. Ellen has fulfilled several other director positions, among others partner/director at Twynstra Gudde Mobiliteit and Infrastructure BV, as director commerce at NS Reizigers. She was also active at Smit Internationale BV, in multiple director positions, among others director Strategy and seconded Director of the trade association IRO.

This interview was conducted by Arjan Gras, Interviewer.