Smarter business decisions with structured scenario planning

Actionable decision-making in business uncertainty  

Organizations need a clear way to make decisions under uncertainty. Scenario planning provides that structure – it creates space for actionable decision-making. By separating decisions from uncertainties, it becomes easier to evaluate choices without adding unnecessary complexity or relying on false precision. With the right tools and approach, organizations can prepare a range of possible outcomes across areas such as supply chains, investments, workforce planning, and innovation. “For many companies, this is the optimal solution for tactical and strategic challenges,” says Sander Vlot, VP of the Center of Excellence at ORTEC Lumina. “It’s a realistic, workable step forward - and that’s exactly what organizations need right now.”

Companies are dealing with increasing complexity - from supply chain disruptions to geopolitical tensions, climate change, and changing customer behavior. Many existing planning systems are not designed to handle multiple future scenarios alongside strategic decisions. “At ORTEC, we’re developing methods to make that complexity manageable - to avoid falling into the trap of false certainty,” says Vlot. 

Growing urgency: From efficiency to resilience 

For many years, supply chains were optimized for efficiency, focusing on lean operations and cost reduction. While effective in stable conditions, this approach also created vulnerability. Disruptions such as the COVID-19 pandemic or chip shortages exposed these limitations. 

Scenario planning helps organizations prepare for multiple plausible futures instead of relying on a single forecast. This supports decisions that remain effective across different conditions. As Sander Vlot explains, “We’re seeing that companies now realize pure efficiency isn’t enough anymore. There’s a clear shift toward resilience and risk diversification. That demands different decisions, different trade-offs—and therefore, different tools.” 

From “what if” to structured scenario planning 

Traditional planning often relies on one forecast and one outcome. This works in predictable environments but becomes limited as uncertainty increases. Organizations that try to compare multiple scenarios often face technical and conceptual challenges. Many planning systems treat scenarios as lists where uncertainties and decisions are combined. This makes it difficult to evaluate which decisions perform best across different futures. 

“What we often see is that companies create different scenarios but mix up uncertainties - like demand and supply fluctuations - with decisions, such as investments in capacity. In that case, you are essentially calculating which investments would make most sense for individual possible futures. However, since you can't pick your favorite future, you still don't know which investments provide the best balance of efficiency, risk, and resilience across all possible futures. That makes these mixed scenarios less actionable." 

Decision-making versus uncertainty 

A more effective approach separates what organizations can control from what they cannot. Uncertainties describe different possible futures, such as varying demand levels or disruptions in supply. Decisions represent the actions an organization can take, such as investing in capacity or adjusting production timing. Bringing these dimensions together in a structured framework allows organizations to evaluate how decisions perform under different scenarios. Each combination represents a possible outcome that can be assessed for cost, risk, and robustness. 

Sander explains: “It’s a pragmatic form of optimization that doesn’t require calculating probability distributions. Instead, you make your own trade-offs between cost, risk, and robustness. For planners, it’s simply a very clear and structured way to deal with decision-making under uncertainty.” 

A flexible planning environment 

“At ORTEC, we often build software that sits on top of ERP systems or other planning software,” Vlot explains. “We don’t replace those systems - we integrate with them. If you see your ERP system as a ‘system of record’—primarily focused on the uniform storage of transactional business data—then our software acts as a ‘system of decision intelligence.’” It enables users to build and compare scenarios. This includes evaluating risks and opportunities, such as demand shifts, supply disruptions, or operational constraints. 

Technology as a catalyst in scenario planning 

Advances in technology have made scenario planning more practical. Increased computing power and improved data availability allow organizations to generate and evaluate multiple future scenarios more easily. “Machine learning is increasingly being used to support decision-making,” says Vlot.“ Forecasting can now generate multiple future scenarios. That’s already a step beyond traditional forecasting, which usually only offers one outlook.” 

These scenarios can be used to test decisions before they are implemented. Combined with planning and execution, this creates a continuous learning cycle where organizations refine their decisions based on real outcomes. “Sometimes, simple machine learning models are accurate enough, and much faster to evaluate. That enables large-scale scenario analyses without sacrificing too much quality.”

Structured planning as a way of thinking 

Scenario planning is not a one-time exercise – it's a discipline. It requires a structured way of thinking about uncertainty and decision-making. This includes improving data consistency and aligning processes across teams and regions. 

“What we often see with clients is that it not only results in better plans, but also more transparency,” Vlot says. “In many organizations, gaining a consolidated overview —like simulating inventory levels across countries—is an important first step. From there, you can start working with scenarios." Implementation can be challenging, especially when organizations use different systems and definitions. However, addressing these differences creates a foundation for more consistent and forward-looking planning.